This book was written at the turn of the 21st century. I read it in 2020 while the world is still in the middle of the Coronavirus pandemic which seems an appropriate time to be reading such a book. Martin Rees takes an analytical look at all the growing threats which could put an end to humanity before the end of the century. We are now a fifth of the way through that century and so far we are still here.
As with any book taking a serious look at the future, the further away the prediction is, generally the wider the margin of error. There are still things that are no doubt to come which he talks about such as biotech, nanobots and other technology that if it should fall into the wrong hands could be catastrophic for humanity. The coronavirus that has spread across the world currently is a reminder of such a black swan event that can catch us all off guard.
Something which peaked my curiosity was the mention (on page 28) of the Doomsday clock updated by the bulletin of atomic scientists. It is an analogy of a clock which, depending on how close the time is to midnight, represents how close we are to destroying ourselves based on current events. It was founded back in 1947 at the end of the second world war. Since Martin Rees wrote Our Final Century the clock has moved away from Midnight and then turned around and is now closer than ever with the time being 100 seconds to midnight.
Something else I found interesting that Martin mentions was the mediocrity principle which makes deduced reasoning that we are more likely to be somewhere in the middle of the timespan of our species. This is because anything drawn at random is most likely to be picked from the most numerous category and incredibly unlikely on the fringes. So it’s highly unlikely we would be right at the beginning or right at the end. If you look at anything which exists, the longer it has been around the more likely it will continue to be around. This principle can be applied to many things such as businesses, governments, buildings, structures etc.
One thing this book has led me to do is write a list of all the potential catastrophes and ways to prepare for them. I have concluded the best thing any of us can do to prepare against the majority of outcomes is to build an underground bunker somewhere high up in the mountains and hope that isn’t where an asteroid impacts.
Favorite quotes from the book:
The gravity of a threat is its magnitude multiplied by its probability. – Page 60
The internet is allowing us to “filter” our input, so that each person reads a “Daily Me” customised to individual tastes and (more insidiously) purged of material that may challenge prejudices. – Page 64
Human beings are perpetuating a “sixth extinction” on the same scale as earlier episodes. – page 101
We are burning the books before we’ve even learnt to read them. – page 101
The environment many of us cherish and feel most attuned to… is an artificial creation, the outcome of centuries of intensive cultivation, enriched by many non indigenous plants and trees introduced by farmers and gardeners. – page 101
Scientists have often been caught out in the past, rejecting evidence staring them in the face because they couldn’t at the time think of how to explain it. – pager 107
The small chance of something really catastrophic is more worrying than the greater chance of less extreme events. – page 112
If we don’t accept some risk, we may forgo great benefits. – page 132
No matter how much we learn, whatever is left, however small it may seem, is just as infinitely complex as the whole was to start with. – page 142
All life on Earth seems to have had a common ancestor, but how did this first living thing come into being? – page 155
Absence of evidence wouldn’t be evidence of absence. – page 167
Most great innovations and achievements were initiated not because they were a national goal, still less a goal of humanity, but because of economic or simply personal obsession. – page 176
Overall: 83%